Q&A: How to Spot Investment Scams Before You Lose Everything
#633: Paul is worried the private equity investment he’s about to make could be a scam. How can he do his due diligence and stay protected when there’s a shortage of reliable information?
Rob is questioning the purpose of a bond allocation in his eight-figure investment portfolio. Is he on to something, or is there a legitimate case to add them?
Dan can retire in a few years, but he’s itching to do it now. Would buying a business be the key to unlocking an earlier exit from his W2?
Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.
Enjoy!
Resources:
Interview with Dr. Eric Cole
Interview with Katie Gatti Tassin
P.S. Got a question? Leave it at https://affordanything.com/voicemail
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1:15:39
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1:15:39
How to Get Everything You Want at Work
Your Next Raise is open for enrollment!
https://affordanything.com/how-to-negotiate-your-next-raise
#632: There are 10 conversations that a person should have at work in order to do a better job, have better relationships at work, and make more money.
Melody Wilding, Professor of Human Behavior at Hunter College, joins us to talk about how you can get the most out of your boss.
Resources:
Managing Up by Melody Wilding: managingup.com
Timestamps:
Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.
(00:00) The 10 Conversations Framework
(02:37) Shifting Workplace Dynamics
(06:11) Key Conversations for Alignment
(10:02) Understanding Your Boss’s Priorities
(12:02) Mapping Stakeholder Influence
(15:28) Visibility and Proximity Bias
(20:31) Managing Shifting Priorities
(22:11) Understanding Boss Archetypes
(28:01) Navigating Personality Frameworks
(32:06) Articulating Your Communication Style
(35:03) Taking Ownership and Suggesting Ideas
(39:59) Building a Reputation Through Ownership
(45:03) Setting and Framing Boundaries
(56:01) The Ripple Effect of Unaddressed Issues
(59:00) Feedback Conversations
(01:03:02) Recapping the Framework Steps
(01:11:09) Building Your Story Bank
(01:18:01) Advancement and Compensation Conversations
(01:25:15) Framing Your Compensation Request
(01:29:00) Navigating Policy-Based Responses
(01:31:51) Creative Compensation Solutions
(01:34:29) Knowing When to Leave
(01:36:13) Assessing Future Opportunities
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1:44:34
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1:44:34
Q&A: Is ChatGPT's Portfolio Better Than VTSAX?
Your Next Raise now open for enrollment!
https://affordanything.com/how-to-negotiate-your-next-raise
#631: Jason's analysis of his retirement plan shows that the simple path beats the efficient frontier. Is he right or is he missing something?
Minerva is worried about the impacts of tax inefficiency to her wealth. Are her investments properly located?
Scott feels frozen because he doesn’t understand the nuances of the efficient frontier. Where can he get a simplified explainer so he can start taking action?
Former financial planner Joe Saul-Sehy and I tackle these three questions in today’s episode.
Enjoy!
P.S. Got a question? Leave it here.
Resources Mentioned:
https://affordanything.com/how-to-negotiate-your-next-raise/
https://affordanything.kit.com/assetlocation
Join Paula at Acorns and get your $5 bonus!
https://affordanything.com/577-qa-the-efficient-frontier-was-perfect-until-hr-got-involved/
https://affordanything.com/547-ask-paula-we-have-2-million-at-40-now-what/
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/small-cap-value-etf/
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1:42:08
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1:42:08
BONUS First Monday: How Did the BLS Get the Jobs Report So Wrong?
Special bonus episode. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issues massive job revisions on Friday morning. The revisions wipe out nearly 90% of previously reported gains for May and June. This raises fundamental questions about how our most trusted economic data gets calculated.
In this episode, we break down how the system works. We examine why the revisions are so large. We explore what this means for understanding the real economy.
Friday arrives. The BLS delivers what appears routine: 73,000 new positions added in July. But the revisions tell a different story. May's initially reported 144,000 job gains become 19,000. June's seemingly solid 147,000 drops to just 14,000. These represent 87-90% overestimates. They fundamentally alter the economic picture for those months.
The BLS surveys 560,000 businesses each month. They use payroll data from the 12th of the month. But only 60-73% of those businesses respond by the initial release deadline. The remaining portion gets filled through statistical modeling. The models rely on historical patterns.
This approach typically produces revisions in the 20,000-50,000 range. But throughout 2025, average monthly revisions reach 66,000. That's triple the normal size. The statistical models aren't capturing current economic conditions effectively.
The problem becomes clear when economic conditions shift rapidly. Historical patterns become unreliable guides. The 2024 annual revision was the largest since 2009. What happened in 2009? The Great Recession. Another period when traditional forecasting tools struggled with rapid change.
ADP is a private payroll processor. They serve 460,000 companies. They provide useful comparison data. For May, their 37,000 private-sector job estimate aligns reasonably well with BLS's revised 19,000 total. For June, ADP reports a 33,000 job loss. BLS shows a 14,000 gain.
ADP's independent data helps validate the revised numbers while highlighting the magnitude of the initial errors.
These numbers drive real decisions. Federal Reserve officials use employment data for interest rate policy. Investors allocate capital based on these reports. Workers make career decisions based on perceived labor market strength.
When the initial data misses by 90%, everyone operates with fundamentally flawed information.
The revisions expose how fragile our economic measurement systems become when conditions change faster than models can adapt.
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17:30
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17:30
First Friday: We Were Wrong About 258,000 Jobs (This Changes Everything)
#630: Interesting observations about the current housing market, meme stocks (again), GDP, Fed Meeting, Stock Market, and the latest Jobs Report updates.
Timestamps:
Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.
00:00 Introduction to Economic Turmoil
01:21 Jobs Report According to the BLS
09:23 Impact of Tariff Negotiations
12:36 The Broader Trade Landscape
16:04 Stock Market Reactions
24:11 GDP and Inflation Insights
31:52 The Fed’s Steady Hand (Interest Rates)
39:55 Housing Market Dynamics
39:40 Affordability Crisis in Real Estate
50:23 The Return of Meme Stocks
Resource mentioned:
Spencer Jakab on The GameStop Revolution
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You can afford anything, but not everything. We make daily decisions about how to spend money, time, energy, focus and attention – and ultimately, our life.
How do we make smarter decisions? How do we think from first principles?
On the surface, Afford Anything seems like a podcast about money and investing.
But under the hood, this is a show about how to think critically, recognize our behavioral blind spots, and make smarter choices. We’re into the psychology of money, and we love metacognition: thinking about how to think.
In some episodes, we interview world-class experts: professors, researchers, scientists, authors. In other episodes, we answer your questions, talking through decision-making frameworks and mental models.
Want to learn more? Download our free book, Escape, at http://affordanything.com/escape. Hosted by Paula Pant.
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