Hidden Mortgage Market Shifts Are Creating Opportunities | Matt Jozoff of Trevally Capital
Matt Jozoff, co-CEO, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital joins Other People’s Money, to discuss how trends like the growth in the Ginnie Mae market, low credit borrowers and non-bank originators, and other factors are affecting mortgage prepayments and creating opportunities in the mortgage market for firms like Trevally Capital. He also discusses how Trevally Capital is looking to extract alpha from these opportunities and build a world-class institutional asset manager with the backing of partners like The Raptor Group and Seaport Global Securities.
Learn more about Trevally Capital: https://www.trevallycapital.com/
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Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:33 Post-Tariff Fixed Income Market Update
06:49 Recent Mortgage Market Developments
10:45 Ginnie Mae Mortgages
12:04 Not Calling For Another Mortgage Crisis
13:42 Nobody Can Afford Refinancing
17:24 Trump Admin and Fannie & Freddie
21:08 Factors Affecting Mortgage Prepayments
28:27 Day one Institutional Quality
34:53 Prepayments Part II
39:04 Importance of Seed Investors like Raptor & Seaport Global
42:07 Hedge Fund Seed Investing is Venture Capital
43:55 Peers & Competitors in the Mortgage Market
49:36 Physics & Cincinnati Connection
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50:42
Tariffs Aren’t Going Away | PIMCO’s Policy Head Libby Cantrill on Trade and Tax Environment In New U.S. Administration
Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, joins Monetary Matters to explain her outlook on U.S. trade and tax policy. Cantrill argues that while Trump administration has flexibility in tariff negotiations and that the China tariffs are likely headed much lower (a prediction that already looks like it will come true), tariffs are not going away anytime soon and she views the 10% tariffs on the world as a floor, with reciprocal tariffs on top of that floor especially on China being elevated. Cantrill also shares her views on sectoral tariffs, the rumored “Mar-a-Lago Accord” (she doesn’t think it has traction), and tax cuts. Recorded the afternoon of April 22, 2025.
Follow Libby Cantrill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/libby-cantrill-cfa-17162513b/
Most recent piece, “Overall U.S. Tariff Level Still High Despite Exemptions”:
https://www.pimco.com/us/en/insights/overall-us-tariff-level-still-high-despite-exemptions
Cantrill’s profile on PIMCO: https://www.pimco.com/us/en/experts/libby-cantrill
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55:18
Preparing For A Real Credit Cycle | Danny Moses on Tariff Fatigue, Private Credit, Gold, Tarnishing of U.S. Brand, and Why Stocks Still Aren’t Cheap
To view the prospectus for the VanEck Merk Gold ETF (OUNZ), please visit: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZProspectus
Learn more: https://www.vaneck.com/OUNZJack/overview/
What happens to Private Credit in a slowdown? Are fears of tariffs overblown? Danny Moses of “The Big Short” renown joins Monetary Matters to share his views on these important issues and more. Recorded April 17 2025.
Follow Danny Moses on Twitter https://x.com/dmoses34
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Danny Moses’ podcast, On The Tape: https://open.spotify.com/show/1Bawg52xr2HpGeN36npyua
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1:11:27
Breaking The Dollar System | Freya Beamish
Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, joins Jack to argue why American tariff policy is accelerating a transition to a multi-polar international monetary order. She estimates that U.S. and China will reach a deal lowering tariffs to ~30% levels and shares her views on bonds and gold. Recorded on April 14, 2025.
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1:11:47
The World Is Dumping U.S. Assets | Julian Brigden
Sign up for MacroCapture by MI2 Partners today with coupon codes MM10 (for annual) and MM10Q (for quarterly) to save 10% at: https://mi2partners.com/macrocapture-landing-page/
Julian Brigden Co-Founder of MI2 Partners joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the dramatic shift in US trade policy is making non-US investors dump US assets and bring home the profits from a historic bull run in US assets. He also explains why this repatriation of profits coupled with an eventual slowdown in the flow of dollars driven by tariff policy itself spells a weaker dollar and trouble for US financial markets, even if it does result in American reindustrialization. Recorded April 15, 2025.
Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://x.com/JulianMI2
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:53 The Whole World is Overweight the US
09:55 Tariffs Slow the Dollar Flow
17:54 Selling US Assets is Prudent for Foreign Investors
26:42 Who Wins in the US Domestic Economy?
29:56 MacroCapture
34:58 Tariffs Have Been a Carpet-bomb Approach
44:06 Tariffs = Stagflation
49:43 Tariff Effects on China and Europe
54:04 Are Risks Greater in the US?
01:00:13 Will Foreign Markets Outperform on US Weakness or Their Strength?
01:04:32 Bond Market Outlook
01:10:24 Gold Outlook
01:12:50 Reading the Tape to Detect Market Participants
01:18:16 Where is the Trump Put?
01:22:21 America’s Liz Truss Moment
01:25:59 Credit Trades and HYG
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