Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do in 2025. Recorded just after the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on Twitter https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Noel Smith, founder of Convex Asset Management has spent most of his career outside of the world of managing other people’s money. Instead, he traded his own capital as a proprietary trader. Prop traders are famed for generating staggering rates of return, but because they have no interest in raising money, their secrets and strategies generally remain behind closed doors. However, he has decided to bring these strategies to the hedge fund world at Convex Asset Management and while they don’t scale to produce the same level of returns their lack of availability outside the prop world gives him differentiation in the product marketplace. In this interview, Smith explains why props can make so much more money, how much harder capital raising is than he anticipated, and why he ranks relationships and likability higher than performance when it comes to hedge fund success. Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR Follow Noel Smith on Twitter: https://x.com/NoelConvex Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:16 What is Prop Trading? 10:51 Moving to the Hedge Fund World 16:36 The Hedge Fund Popularity Contest 23:04 Volatility Trading Strategies 27:27 Extracting Information From The Options Market 32:09 Scaling Prop Strategies 34:44 Alpha Degradation 39:31 Being Good Is Not Enough 48:03 Dealing With Extreme Performance 53:28 Long-term Vision For Convex Asset Management

Vincent Deluard, director of global macro for StoneX, joins Monetary Matters to share why he thinks there is a perfect storm of macro headwinds that in April to May of 2025 may put a halt to the relentless rise in U.S. stocks.  Deluard argues that the lower inflation of 2024 will result in a lower cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) adjustment for 2025 U.S. government programs such as Social Security. He thinks a strong U.S. dollar could dent corporate profits and that state and local governments plan to actually shrink expenditures in 2025.  Deluard, a Frenchman, shares his detailed view on political chaos in France and its macroeconomic consequences. Recorded on December 11, 2024.  Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://x.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf consulting, joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his current views on stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf expects a >1000 point correction in the S&P 500 in early 2025, and warns that a strengthening Japanese yen could unleash a wave of liquidations from investors involved in the Yen carry trade. Under such a risk-off scenario, Zulauf expects U.S. Treasury yields to decline, however he thinks the secular bear market in bonds will ultimately continue. Zulauf is not ready to call an end to the secular bull market in U.S. stocks. Recorded on December 9, 2024.  Felix Zulauf website: https://www.felixzulauf.com/ Felix Zulauf email: [email protected] Zulauf Consulting on LinkedIn: zulauf-consulting Zulauf Consulting YouTube Channel: @zulaufconsulting Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 ___ Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship: This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.  Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns. Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates. __ Music from #InAudio: https://inaudio.org/ Track Name: Cinematic Piano [Cinematic Music] by MokkaMusic / Soul