Mexico Doesn't Want a Trade War, Corn Prices Surge
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump Temporarily Suspends Tariffs on Mexico 🇲🇽💼President Trump agreed to delay the planned 25% tariffs on Mexico for 30 days. 🇺🇸🤝🇲🇽 In return, Mexico committed to sending 10,000 National Guard officers to the border to curb fentanyl and migrant flows. As a result, the Mexican peso strengthened, and corn futures recovered, easing concerns over unshipped US corn sales to Mexico. 🌽💰Trump Suspends Tariffs on Canadian Imports 🇨🇦💼President Trump also delayed tariffs on Canadian imports for 30 days after negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada agreed to spend $1.3 billion to strengthen its border, appoint a fentanyl czar, and list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups. 📈China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs 🇨🇳⚔️China imposed retaliatory tariffs on some US imports, including a 15% tariff on $5 billion worth of energy imports like oil and natural gas. ⛽ A 10% tariff on agricultural equipment was also announced. China refrained from targeting soybeans, but tensions remain. ⚖️Brazilian Real Climbs Against the Dollar 💰📈The Brazilian real rose for the 11th consecutive day, hitting its highest level since November, following Trump’s tariff suspension on Mexico. 📊 It has gained roughly 6% year-to-date, reflecting optimism about Brazil’s economic outlook.Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimates Vary 🌱Brazil’s soybean crop estimates differ among analysts. Celeres raised its forecast to 174mmt due to favorable weather, while StoneX cut its estimate to 170.9mmt due to dry conditions. 🌾 AgRural reported that Brazil's soybean harvest is 9% complete, trailing behind last year's pace. 📉US Corn Shipments Surge 🌽🚢US corn exports remained strong, with 1.3mmt (49 million bushels) inspected for export, up 94% from last year. 🌾 Soybean exports were also up by 37% compared to the prior week. However, wheat shipments declined. 📉
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12:40
Live from Nashville! Tariff Talk, Unshipped Bushels, The Funds, and More!
Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGGTrump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China 💥President Trump followed through on his threat, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on China, effective Tuesday. 🌎 These tariffs are set to stay until illegal immigration and fentanyl influx stop. Additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and pharmaceuticals are expected. Traders seem concerned, as grain markets are trading lower despite the news being telegraphed. 📉Retaliation Plans from Mexico and Canada 🇲🇽🇨🇦Both Canada and Mexico are preparing counter-tariffs. Canada plans 25% tariffs on $106 billion worth of U.S. goods, starting with a quarter on Tuesday. Mexico is considering retaliatory tariffs, though specifics aren't out yet. China, facing a 10% tariff, will take legal action via the WTO. 🌾 Corn and soybean retaliation remains a possibility. 🌽Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn and Soybeans 📊Large money managers increased their net-long position in both corn and soybeans last week, with the net-long corn position hitting a record high. 📈 The funds were net buyers of 22k corn contracts and 7k soybean contracts, signaling optimism about crop potential despite market volatility. 🐂Argentina's Soybean Crop Outlook Deteriorates 🌱Argentina’s soybean crop may be worse than expected, with satellite imagery estimating it at just 45mmt, much lower than earlier projections. 🌧️ Harvesting is behind, and rain forecasted for the coming days is expected to be light, offering little relief. 🌾U.S. Resumes Mexican Cattle Imports Amid Tight Supply 🐄The U.S. is set to resume Mexican cattle imports after a suspension due to the New World screwworm. The tight cattle supply has driven U.S. cattle prices to record highs, further reinforced by USDA's report showing the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951. 📉
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24:08
Corn Gaps Lower After Trump Confirms Tariff Plan
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Trump's Tariff Plans Unfold 💥President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting tomorrow, citing issues like fentanyl trafficking and trade deficits. 🌎 The tariffs could increase over time, with China also being targeted. The situation remains fluid, with Trump aides seeking last-minute deals. ⚖️Mexico Prepares Retaliation 🇲🇽Mexico is ready to retaliate with tariffs of up to 20% on U.S. products like produce, cheese, pork, and bourbon. 🍋🧀 The proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports could cost 400,000 U.S. jobs, but for now, Mexican corn purchases remain unaffected. 🌽Brazil's Corn Planting Delays Impact Supply 🌾Delayed planting in Brazil’s top corn-producing state, Mato Grosso, could further restrict global corn supply. 🌧️ Despite the delay, planting progress is expected to pick up this week, with two-thirds of Brazil's second corn crop coming from Mato Grosso and Paraná. 📅US Corn Export Sales Strong 🚢US corn export sales were solid last week, with Japan leading the purchases. 🌍 Soybean sales fell short of expectations, while wheat exports surged. 🌾US Drought Conditions Update 🌵Drought conditions in the Corn Belt remained steady last week, with expansion in western Missouri. 🌾 29% of the region is experiencing drought, with soybeans and spring wheat also impacted. 🌱
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18:30
ROCKET SHIP: Spot Corn Trades 14-Month High
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Wednesday's Rally4:00 Mexico Tariff Comments6:41 Lutnick Comments7:56 Russia Wheat Situation9:02 Fed Holds Rates SteadyCorn and Soybean Futures Surge 🌾Corn and soybean futures saw a strong rally on Wednesday, with corn reaching a 7-month high at $4.97. 🌽 The tightening U.S. supply-demand situation continues to support these markets, and wheat futures also gained. 📈Mexico Prepared for Potential Tariffs 🇲🇽Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum isn’t expecting immediate tariffs but has a plan in place if they are implemented. 🚨 A potential trade war could impact the $800 billion annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico, with Mexico being the top buyer of U.S. corn this year. 🌽Trump’s Commerce Secretary on Tariffs 💼President Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary emphasized that tariffs could be avoided if Mexico and Canada curb fentanyl flows. He also discussed potential restrictions on China’s access to technology due to recent AI developments. ⚖️Russian Grain Exports Expected to Decline 🌾Russia’s grain exports are projected to drop significantly this season, falling to 57mmt from 72mmt last year, due to extreme weather conditions. 🌧️ Despite this, 82% of the country's grain crop is reportedly in good condition. 🌾Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady 💵The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, noting that inflation remains high and the job market is solid. President Trump criticized the Fed for allowing inflation to rise and promised to stabilize prices through energy production and better trade deals. 📉
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10:52
Trump Spending Freeze, Direct Farm Payments, and Corn Strength
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Federal Funding Freeze Temporarily BlockedA federal judge has temporarily blocked President Trump’s funding freeze, which would affect various programs like the Inflation Reduction Act. 🛑 Programs supporting Americans, like Medicare and food stamps, are safe, but the freeze may impact the 45Z tax credit and biofuels. 💰Corn Futures Near Recent HighsCorn futures are just below recent highs, with tightening U.S. supply and strong demand driving prices. 🌽 Farmers in Brazil have planted only a small portion of their second corn crop. 📈Tariff Threats Boost DollarThe U.S. dollar gained strength following renewed tariff threats from President Trump. 💵 Trump is considering tariffs on imports like computer chips and steel, which is pushing the dollar higher. 📊Contaminated Soybean Meal Found in BrazilSand was discovered in Brazilian soybean meal at the Port of Paranaguá, leading to rejections of contaminated shipments. 🌾 This comes as China halts shipments from five Brazilian companies. 🚫Flash Sale of U.S. Corn to South KoreaU.S. corn exports saw a strong flash sale to South Korea, with competitive pricing likely to boost further sales. 🌽 Global demand for U.S. corn remains strong as Brazil’s larger crop is still in the works. 🌍Federal Reserve Expected to Hold RatesThe Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged today, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts. 💵 The decision comes as the Fed continues to assess inflation trends amid Trump’s economic policies. 📉
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