Bulwark Takes

MAGA pollster Rich Baris joins Tim Miller to explain why Republicans may be underestimating just how competitive the 2026 Senate map could become. Baris says that Michigan and Georgia are effectively locks for Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Jon Ossoff. He also sees Democratic opportunities in states Republicans have long considered safe—including Kansas, Nebraska, Montana, Texas, and Ohio.
Tim and Rich also talk about why Republican messaging about “socialism” is missing the point. Voters are far more worried about the cost of living, paying their bills, and affording everyday life than they are about scary ideological labels. Rich says it's clear that Trump is betraying the coalition that put him back in the White House. The war, affordability, immigration, and social-media trolling are all alienating voters who once found his approach entertaining and effective.
For a limited time, Tempo is offering our listeners 60% off your first box! Go to https://TempoMeals.com/BulwarkTakes

Sam Stein and former CIA officer Marc Polymeropoulos give their takes on Russia’s attempted attacks in Germany, the growing threat of Russian hybrid warfare across Europe, and why Germany’s muted response could invite even more aggression. They also dig into the extraordinary contradiction at the heart of U.S. policy: American intelligence is helping Ukraine fight Russia while the Trump administration cozies up to Putin and welcomes Russia back onto the world stage.
Plus, Sam and Marc take a closer look at the Trump administration’s strange new Venezuela oil deal, the questions it raises about American power and influence, and the increasingly uncomfortable gap between the GOP’s rhetoric about socialism and what the administration is actually doing.
For a limited time, Tempo is offering our listeners 60% off your first box! Go to https://TempoMeals.com/BulwarkTakes
There’s big news from The Bulwark: Marc and investigative journalist Michael Weiss are launching a brand-new podcast, Reporter and the Spy. The show will explore the fascinating intersection of journalism and espionage, drawing on their firsthand experience reporting from and operating in the world’s most dangerous places.
Subscribe to The Bulwark so you don’t miss Reporter and the Spy when it launches this fall. If you value independent reporting, sharp analysis, and people who actually know what they’re talking about, become a subscriber today.

The USS Abraham Lincoln finally returns to port after nearly 300 days at sea—and the visible wear and tear is a stark reminder of the strain being placed on the U.S. military.
Ben Parker and Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) discuss the Navy’s mounting readiness challenges, the Pentagon’s purge of senior Army leaders, and the departure of Army Secretary Dan Driscoll. They also break down what leaked Pentagon orders reveal about commanders’ concerns over the sustainability of ongoing operations in Iran and why the warnings coming from inside the military deserve attention.
Plus: Trump’s potential Navy secretary pick, and the Pentagon’s bizarre new plan to fix defense acquisition with a “Shark Tank”-style competition.
Read Mark Hertling’s reporting and analysis: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/leaks-from-hegseth-orders-book-warning-risk-iran-war-hormuz-military-commanders-munitions
For a limited time, Tempo is offering our listeners 60% off your first box! Go to https://TempoMeals.com/BulwarkTakes

A 20-year-old Haitian college student, Pierre Damas Bel, came to America to study, play soccer, serve in JROTC, and pursue a career in medicine. Instead, he was placed with an ankle monitor, bullied and humiliated by classmates, and made to feel like a criminal despite having committed no crime.
Tim Miller and Sam Stein discuss Pierre’s tragic death, the human cost of Trump’s immigration crackdown, and the cruelty being inflicted on Haitian immigrants by Trump and JD Vance.
Tim and JVL on JD Vance's book: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/a-dramatic-reading-of-jd-vances-awful
For a limited time, Tempo is offering our listeners 60% off your first box! Go to https://TempoMeals.com/BulwarkTakes
We’ll be honest—stories about the human cost of this administration’s policies are devastating. But they matter, and paid Bulwark members give us the freedom to cover them anyway—without having to let the algorithm decide which stories deserve attention. Join us and help make that important work possible.

Sam Stein and Lauren Egan give their takes on the behind-the-scenes scramble for campaign staff, the Democrats already courting operatives in early primary states, and why South Carolina is suddenly such a crucial piece of the 2028 puzzle. They also debate just how massive the Democratic field could get and where the next presidential campaigns may set up shop.
Make today a good day, and get yourself some Soul gummies. Right now, Soul is offering our audience 30% off your entire order! Go to https://GetSoul.com and use the code BULWARKTAKES for 30% off.
A quick note: Lauren’s reporting in The Opposition is already being passed around the group chats of campaign staffers, operatives, and political pros trying to figure out what’s coming next. If you want to read the same reporting insiders are reading, sign up and get The Opposition in your inbox: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/2028-democratic-presidential-primary-is-quietly-raging-staffers